Despite being one of the most bullish crypto VC’s, Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, cast doubt on Bitcoin’s ability to hit a new high anytime soon.
As reported by CCN, after a more thorough examination of the market, Pompliano suggested that his earlier prediction of a $50,000 Bitcoin price by the end of 2018 could be as much as five years away.
In his recent blog post, Pompliano wrote:
“Parabolic increases in price continue to take longer — each parabolic run is measured from the last all-time high to the new all-time high. The first rapid price appreciation took just over 300 days (2010-2011) and the second took over 900 days (2011-2013). The last parabolic price increase peaked at ~$20,000 (2013-2017) and took almost 1,500 days to complete.”
According to Pompliano, an extrapolation of this trend shows that Bitcoin is unlikely to hit another all-time high until the middle of 2023, more than 2,000 days after the previous all-time high.
Measuring historical bear market data shows that the first bear market lasted for about 160 days in 2011, with the next one lasting 400 days between 2013 and 2014. Using that data to construct a trend, the current bear market is likely to go on for about 650 days.
In the event that this happens, a full recovery from negative price movements is not due until the 3rd quarter of 2019, which is substantially longer than what most market participants presently anticipate. Importantly, this could mean a high level of “pain and discomfort” for investors, Pompliano says.
As for the predictions he has made in January this year, Pompliano muses:
“It is never fun to admit that you were wrong about something you said publicly. However, it is important to constantly test your own assumptions and beliefs. As I’ve tested myself over the last few weeks, it became obvious that I needed to gather better data and rebuild the prediction model.”
In Pompliano’s view, a review of available data suggests a number of unpleasant outcomes, notably that the price of Bitcoin is more likely to hit $3,000 in the short term than anywhere near $10,000, which means that there is still a price decline of roughly 50% ahead.
Nevertheless, Pompliano still believes Bitcoin will hit $50,000, albeit in 2022 or 2023. His advice to investors is to buckle up and prepare for the worst while doing their own research in the interim.
In July, Morgan Capital Management founder Mark Yusco predicted a Bitcoin year-end price of $25,000, followed by a subsequent run culminating in a price exceeding $500,000 by 2024.
At press time, Bitcoin’s average price, according to CoinMarketCap, was $6,696.
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